French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is preparing for a vote of no confidence that could topple his government just months after it was formed. The crisis was triggered by Barnier’s decision to use the French Constitution to push through a controversial 2025 budget.
Section 49.3
Article 49.3 of the French Constitution allows the government to legislate without a parliamentary vote by assuming responsibility for the bill. However, many consider this provision to be undemocratic. The invocation of article 49.3 opens the possibility of a motion of censure. If such a motion is tabled within 24 hours and then adopted by more than half of the members of the Assembly, the government is forced to resign and the bill is rejected.
Since the introduction of the article in 1958, it has been used 89 times, notably by Prime Minister Michel Rocard, who used it 28 times between 1988 and 1991.
Opposition
In the divided French National Assembly, no party holds a majority.
The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) tabled motions, paving the way for a decisive vote on Wednesday.
Together, they hold enough seats to oust Barnier.
Barnier, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in September, defended the move, calling it essential to address France’s growing deficit and ensure fiscal stability. “We have arrived at a moment of truth, where everyone must assume their responsibilities,” he told lawmakers.
Tax Challenges
Under the European Union’s Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), a country’s budget deficit – the difference between government spending and revenue – must not exceed 3% of its gross domestic product (GDP). during a given year. If a member state exceeds this limit, it faces controls, financial sanctions or pressure from the EU to implement corrective measures.
At the heart of the French conflict is Barnier’s austerity budget, which aims to tackle France’s growing deficit, which is expected to reach 6.1% of GDP this year, more than double the EU limit . The plan proposes 40 billion euros in spending cuts and 20 billion euros in tax increases.
Despite concessions, including abandoning planned electricity tax increases and reducing cuts to health care coverage, the budget failed to win support from the opposition. Without significant budget reform, France’s borrowing costs could rise sharply, further destabilizing the economy.
Political uncertainty has already shaken financial markets and has long-term implications for investor confidence. On Monday, yields on French 10-year bonds rose to their highest levels since the euro zone debt crisis.
What’s next?
If the no-confidence vote passes, Barnier’s government will collapse, making him the shortest-serving French prime minister since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958. President Macron would then face the challenge of appointing a new prime minister or to form a “technocratic government”. (a temporary administration where decision-making is carried out by experts rather than elected politicians) to manage the country until new parliamentary elections can be held next summer.
Macron cannot dissolve Parliament until June 2025 due to constitutional constraints.
Le Pen, who has sought to position the RN as a viable governing party, could further recalibrate her position, choosing to wait for the final budget vote on December 20. She may prefer to preserve her party’s influence rather than risk the unpredictability of negotiations for the new leadership.
