Some ETF analysts, like Aniket Ullal of investment research firm CFRA, share the belief that the arrival of an ETF is likely to increase demand for bitcoin as an investment asset. But the effect on prices will not be a “short-term increase,” Ullal says, but rather extend over several years.

Others say it will have the opposite effect than predicted by figures like Mow, and that the price of Bitcoin could fall as investors attracted by the hubbub quickly cash out their gains. “The idea that there is a huge demand that will somehow materialize is simply not true,” says Peter Schiff, economist and CEO of asset management firm Euro Pacific. “It’s more of a situation where you just buy the rumor and sell the fact.”

The “narrative” that an ETF is a “catalyst for growing demand” has attracted speculators, says Bryan Armour, director of passive research strategies for North America at investment research firm Morningstar. “Hype has always been one of the fundamental principles of Bitcoin. It seems the hype has reached an all-time high.

Figures from research firm Fineqia suggest that the volume of cryptocurrency trading activity has increased in response to speculation over the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF and its impact on the market. In mid-November, daily trading volume on crypto exchanges reached $31.4 billion, the highest level in over six months.

“There’s always the possibility that people are making noise about it for their own benefit,” says Mow, who adds that he doesn’t believe the broader crypto industry — which he considers separate from bitcoin and describes as a “scam” – be able to clean up their act. “The crypto industry will continue to produce FTX and people will continue to invest because it’s a spectacle,” he says.

But whether or not bitcoin is any different – ​​a mature asset whose legitimacy would be “cemented,” as Mow claims, by the approval of an ETF – the incessant speculation surrounding it will expose investors to risk. “It’s extremely volatile and needs to be treated with caution,” Armor says. But, he adds, people “hear the siren song and embrace it.”