There was something curious about the U.S. Transportation Security Administration’s data on passenger traffic at airports last month. The Sunday after Thanksgiving was, as usual, very busy, with 2.6 million people screened through security. That’s the most days on record since the pandemic began, and proof that many people are starting to travel again. But other historical patterns have not held. Friday Before Turkey Day, nearly a week before the holiday, was busier than the equivalent day in 2019 and almost as busy as the day before the holiday, traditionally the peak travel day of the year. People are traveling again, but not like before.
Airlines predicted Thanksgiving travel would be strange. Between pent-up travel demand, sky-high ticket prices, and flexible work-from-home schedules, some people have chosen to fly at different times than in previous years. And carriers are planning similar game-changing trips during the December holidays, which now extend through Hanukkah, Christmas and Kwanzaa, and after New Year’s Day. “Reservations are a little different this year,” Andrew Nocella, executive vice president and chief commercial officer of United Airlines, said in October on a call with investors. “They are more spread out over several days than in the past.”
In other words, the great holiday rush has become the great holiday slush, more of a blob of intensified travel than an explosion of big spikes. A survey by consultant Deloitte found that U.S. travelers are adding an average of six days to their seasonal trips this year due to flexible work arrangements. With remote work seemingly here to stay, the way some people travel during the holidays may have changed forever. They can now avoid the busiest, busiest days of the travel season and perhaps save a little money as a result.
A more dispersed holiday rush, with lower peaks, is also Christmas music to airline ears. “We can become much more efficient because demand is consistently high in all periods,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said at an event hosted by travel information site Skift in November. That means airlines and hotels, always short of pilots, cleaners and flight attendants, may not need to return planes and rooms as quickly as during a holiday period traditional. And less intense competition among passengers for access to seats or rooms on specific days could allow companies to accept more reservations overall. “This is going to help us operationally,” United Airlines CEO Ed Bastian said in explaining the phenomenon to investors this fall.
Less fortunately, these changes could mean fewer breaks for travel industry workers. “This makes the holidays a little more difficult,” Sara Nelson, president of the 50,000-member union, the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, said in a statement. “We used to plan our own vacations and work schedules based on our usual travel habits. Now flights are constantly full. This makes it difficult to access work or use the benefits associated with our employment.
Why is the holiday travel blob showing up now? It’s the collision of three trends in the way people travel and work as a result of the lockdowns and restrictions imposed by the pandemic.
One of them is the growth of remote or hybrid work. According to a recent survey, fourteen percent of full-time employees in the United States work entirely remotely, and 29 percent work outside the office a few days a week. Second, many people are suffering from a pandemic hangover that expresses itself not in a desire to lie down, as most hangovers do, but in a desire to go out, whether to visit to mom or see the world. And third, supply constraints – in terms of airline seats on ever-reduced flight schedules, car rentals and hotel rooms – are driving up prices and pushing some people to consider traveling on off-days. point. “If people find a better deal to travel on a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday and they have the flexibility to do so, they will,” says Vik Krishnan, a partner at McKinsey who consults with clients in the transportation industries. aviation, travel and aerospace. industries.
