“There is a minority of the population that is quite reactionary and, by many standards, quite authoritarian in all Western democracies,” Levitsky says. “The question is how are they channeled into politics? What is exceptional about the United States is that about 25% of them were actually capable of exercising national power. Is MAGA comparable to far-right parties in Europe? Yeah. With the possible exception of Golden Dawn in Greece, which is probably more overtly authoritarian.”

Authoritarian movements of the past share characteristics with what we see in the United States today – from Turkey and Hungary more recently to the rise of fascism in the 1920s – but America’s system of government and political parties present particular obstacles and opportunities.

Assuming democracy remains intact in the years to come, Levitsky believes the Republican Party will eventually have to moderate its stance in response to changing demographics. Current extremism will not be sustainable if the party hopes to win enough elections to hold power in the future. However, Levitsky believes any adjustments could take longer than expected.

“The problem is that our incentives – the Electoral College, the Supreme Court, the fact that sparsely populated territories are dramatically overrepresented in our electoral system – allow Republicans to wield great power without achieving national majorities,” Levitsky says. “If the Republican Party were to actually win more than 50 percent of the national vote to control the Senate, the presidency and the Supreme Court, we would not see them behave as they do now. They would never win.

It remains to be seen whether Trump will be the Republican nominee in the 2024 presidential election, but it is clear that the effects of his actions would not disappear if he did not control the party. Many Americans have become radicalized since he took office, and it is not easy to reverse course.

“I think the consensus is that democracy is unclear, and that’s because the rhetoric and actions of the Republican Party have encouraged their supporters to accept certain behaviors that we wouldn’t have thought were consistent with democracy “, says Erica. Frantz, associate professor of political science at Michigan State University. “Suddenly it’s normal to wonder if our elections are free and fair. Suddenly there’s nothing wrong with being provocative and suggesting violence if the election doesn’t go our way.”